Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder of Binance, just delivered the statement every Bitcoin trader has been waiting for: “The four-year cycle is over. We are now in a supercycle.”
Speaking at Bitcoin MENA in Abu Dhabi and in a widely viewed fireside chat with Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey, CZ explained why the old halving-driven rhythm that defined 2013, 2017, and 2021 is gone forever. With Bitcoin trading at $94,340 (+4.8% in 24h) and showing zero signs of a classic blow-off top, his words are hitting the market at the perfect moment.
Why the Classic 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle No Longer Exists
For over a decade, Bitcoin followed a predictable script:
- Halving → supply shock → retail FOMO → parabolic top → 80-85% crash
- Repeat every four years.
CZ says that script is now broken because the dominant buyers are no longer retail traders chasing 100x gains. They are institutions, corporations, and even nation-states who have no intention of selling.
Key quotes from CZ this week:
- “In previous cycles retail dominated. This cycle institutions are here to stay.”
- “When public companies and countries hold Bitcoin on balance sheets, the game completely changes.”
- “The biggest drivers now are global liquidity, Fed policy, and sovereign adoption — not the halving.”
The Five Forces Powering the Bitcoin Supercycle :
| Supercycle Driver | Real-World Data |
|---|---|
| Spot Bitcoin ETFs | >$105 billion total inflows since Jan 2024 (new all-time high this week) |
| Corporate treasury adoption | MicroStrategy alone holds 423,650 BTC; 40+ public companies now allocating |
| Global liquidity & Fed easing | Markets pricing in 3–4 rate cuts in 2026; real rates turning negative again |
| Stablecoins as on-rails payments | USDT + USDC combined supply >$195 billion and growing $3-5B weekly, proving crypto rails work while Bitcoin remains pristine store-of-value. |
| Nation-state & emerging market adoption | UAE, Saudi Arabia, El Salvador, Bhutan, Argentina all accumulating or mining. MENA region alone added 3+ state-level initiatives in 2025. |
Video from the conference :
Price Action That Matches the Thesis
Unlike previous 4 year cycle where Bitcoin went vertical then immediately rolled over, the current rally looks completely different:
- Higher lows since the 2024 halving
- Minimal distribution at all-time highs
- Institutional rebalancing instead of panic selling
What This Means for Investors in 2025–2026
CZ’s direct advice: “Stop watching the halving clock. Focus on macro trends and fundamentals.”
Practical takeaways:
- Dollar-cost average instead of trying to time the top
- Track weekly ETF flows and corporate announcements more than on-chain cycle models
- Treat Bitcoin as long-term savings technology, not a four-year lottery ticket
Long-term holders who ignored the “cycle is dead” noise in 2021 got wrecked in 2022. This time, the evidence suggests the opposite may be true.
Final Thoughts:
For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, the most powerful voices in the industry — from Michael Saylor to Stan Druckenmiller to CZ — are all saying the same thing: the rules have changed.The 4-year emotional rollercoaster may truly be behind us.Whether Bitcoin hits $150K, $250K, or $1M in this expansion phase, one thing is clear: the supercycle era has begun.What do you think — are we really done with 80% bear markets forever? Drop your take in the comments.
Related articles:
- Full CZ Fireside Chat with David Bailey (YouTube)
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.
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