“The SEC’s Decision on Spot Ether ETFs Will Catch the Market by Surprise,” Crypto Trader Matthew Hyland

• Spot Ether ETFs potential SEC approval triggers anticipation and uncertainty among analysts and traders.
• Analyst Matthew Hyland suggests a surprise approval could catch many traders off guard.
• Reactions vary: some expect denial, while others anticipate a market recovery if rejected or surge if approved.
• David Han of Coinbase suggests that political factors may influence the SEC’s decision on spot Ether ETFs, with approval odds estimated at 30-40%.

The potential approval of spot Ether ETFs by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is a hot topic right now. So, many in the crypto community expect denial. However, some analysts believe there might be a surprise.

Crypto trader Matthew Hyland believes a surprise is possible. He expressed this on May 17 to his 142,000 followers on X. “If by some chance the SEC decides to approve, then so many will be caught severely offside,” he said.

Also, he added that most people expect a denial, which is already “priced in.” He said, “If 90% of people think the ETH ETF will be denied, and the majority of those people think it will lead to a crypto crash, then who will actually be selling?”

See more

If 90% of people think the #ETH ETF will be denied, and majority of those people think it will lead to a crypto crash then who will actually be selling?

ETF Denial priced in for #Crypto

If by some chance the SEC decides to approve then so many will be caught severely offsides

— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) May 17, 2024

Reactions to Spot Ether ETFs Decision

Image from Vietnam Insider 

Additionally, Reactions to Spot Ether ETFs Decision One user, Bitcoin Infantry, thinks that the market anticipates a 92% likelihood of the worst-case scenario where an ETH ETF is denied, leaving litigation as the sole option.  “The market is pricing in a 92% chance of worst-case scenario—ETH ETF denial with litigation as the only recourse. GG seems to strive to be intellectually consistent while also protecting his ego. Loses in court again—embarrassment. Says ETH is not a security—inconsistent,” he said 

See more

Market is pricing in a 92% chance of worse case scenario—ETH ETF denial with litigation as only recourse. GG seems to strive to be intellectually consistent while also protecting his ego. Loses in court again—embarrassment. Says ETH not a security—inconsistent.

— George (@BitcoinInfantry) May 17, 2024

However, TahmidKabir9 stated that many anticipate the news will face rejection, causing widespread selling in anticipation. Therefore, if the rejection is confirmed, a market recovery is probable, but if it is approved, the market will likely experience a significant surge.  “Surely, all those (the majority, it appears) who think it’ll be rejected will have sold… so they sell the news has/is happening… I can’t see anything but the opposite (recovery) once the news of rejection comes in; if it’s approved, however, we go to the moon.”

See more

Yes! Thank you! Surely all those (the majority it appears) who think it’ll be rejected will have sold… so the sell the news has / is happening… can’t see anything but the opposite (recovery) once the news of rejection comes in; if it’s approved however, we go to the moon!

— TK (@TahmidKabir9) May 17, 2024

Current Ethereum Market Status

As of the time of writing, Ethereum’s price is $3,112.84, with a 24-hour trading volume of $13,299,996,919. According to CoinMarketCap, it has risen by 2.27% in the last 24 hours.

Image from Coinmarketcap 

Analyst’s Predictions on Spot Ether ETFs

Moreover, Analyst’s Predictions on Spot Ether ETFs According to Cointelegraph, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has estimated a 35% chance of approval for the spot Ether ETFs. The broader crypto community estimates that it is closer to 7%, as per the New York-based crypto predictions platform Polymarket.

Futhermore, David Han, an institutional research analyst at Coinbase, is more optimistic. In Coinbase’s monthly outlook report published on May 15, Han stated, “We believe the odds of approval are closer to 30-40%.” 

Political Influence on the SEC’s Decision

Han also argued that the increasing prominence of cryptocurrency as a political issue might influence the SEC’s decision. “As crypto begins to take form as an election issue, it’s also less certain in our view that the SEC would be willing to front the political capital necessary to support a denial,” Han explained.

Moreover, he further suggested that even if the VanEck and ARK Invest ETF applications are denied by the initial May 23 deadline, litigation could overturn the decision. So, this view aligns with the broader sentiment that the outcome is less predictable than many think.

Conclusion

The SEC’s decision on spot Ether ETFs is highly anticipated and fraught with uncertainty. Crypto trader Matthew Hyland warns that many are underestimating the potential for approval. Some analysts predict a low chance of approval, while others see room for surprise.

The political implications of the decision and the potential for legal challenges add to the complexity. Also, as the SEC’s decision date approaches, whether they approve or deny the ETFs. The decision will have huge implications for the crypto market.

CNBC; Image source

The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The article does not offer sufficient information to make investment decisions, nor does it constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The content is opinion of the author and does not reflect any view or suggestion or any kind of advise from CryptoNewsBytes.com. The author declares he does not hold any of the above mentioned tokens or received any incentive from the company.