- JPMorgan estimates about $130B moved into digital assets in 2025, up roughly one third from 2024, despite a softer fourth quarter
- Corporate treasuries made up over half of inflows (~$68B), with MicroStrategy near $23B and other firms around $45B versus $8B a year earlier
- CME futures activity eased in 2025, venture deals skewed later stage, and JPMorgan expects institutions to lead with clearer US rules in 2026
JPMorgan expects more global capital to move into digital assets this year than the record $130 billion estimated for 2025, even after a weaker final quarter. The bank’s analysts see crypto markets entering a new phase where inflows, market structure and regulation matter more than short bursts of speculative activity. In their latest report, JPMorgan argues that shifting drivers of demand, from corporate treasuries to institutions using futures and exchange-traded products, will shape how this next wave of capital reaches the market.
JPMorgan view on record 2025 inflows and changing demand mix
JPMorgan’s research team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, estimates that digital assets attracted around $130 billion of net global capital during 2025, which marks a record and represents an increase of about one third compared with 2024. The figure is notable because it came despite a clear pullback in the last quarter, when crypto markets fell after nine months of gains and momentum in both prices and flows weakened. Rather than rely on a single data source, the bank built this estimate by aggregating several channels: flows into crypto funds and exchange-traded products, positioning implied by bitcoin and ether futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, venture capital fundraising, and digital asset purchases by corporate treasuries. That multi-source approach gives a broader view of how money enters the market, beyond headline ETF numbers or on-chain data. According to JPMorgan, retail-linked demand still played a key role in 2025. Inflows into bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds formed a large slice of the total, especially in jurisdictions that allowed spot or well-developed futures-based products. These vehicles gave smaller investors and some advisory platforms a practical way to gain exposure without direct custody. However, the report makes clear that corporate treasuries drove a larger share of net capital than many expected. More than half of total inflows, or about $68 billion, came from corporate balance sheets. Within that group, MicroStrategy accounted for roughly $23 billion, matching its 2024 pace, while other companies increased purchases to around $45 billion, up sharply from just $8 billion in the previous year. Those figures show that treasury desks at a growing number of firms moved beyond cautious pilot positions and treated digital assets as a recognizable line item. This trend has changed how markets interpret corporate news. When MicroStrategy, already the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, expands its holdings, traders now treat the move as both a company-specific strategy and a proxy for broader corporate sentiment. By turning its balance sheet into a concentrated bet on bitcoin’s long-term value, the firm helped normalize the idea of digital assets as treasury reserves for listed companies. At the same time, it tied its stock performance even more tightly to crypto price swings, illustrating both the potential rewards and the volatility costs of such an approach. Other firms have tended to adopt a more moderate stance, but their combined $45 billion in 2025 buying shows that the idea no longer sits at the fringe.
JPMorgan analysis of fourth quarter slowdown and institutional pullback
The report notes that this strong momentum did not last through the entire year. After October, digital asset treasury purchases slowed materially, which means corporate buyers became more cautious just as prices and broader sentiment wobbled. JPMorgan highlights that the fourth quarter marked a clear shift from the earlier trend of steady accumulation. Corporate desks that had scaled into positions during the first nine months appeared less willing to add into rising volatility and softer price action, especially after such large allocations in 2024 and early 2025. That slowdown shows that even committed treasury buyers respond to market conditions and internal risk thresholds, rather than following a fixed schedule. Institutional activity in derivatives sent similar signals. JPMorgan tracks positioning implied by bitcoin and ether futures on the CME, a venue widely used by hedge funds and other professional traders who must operate in regulated markets. Over the course of 2025, this institutional activity weakened compared with 2024. Futures positioning grew less aggressive and then retreated as the year progressed, suggesting that systematic funds, macro managers and market-neutral strategies scaled back risk. Some reduced exposure due to tighter risk budgets after a strong equity year, while others waited for clearer macro or regulatory signals before re-entering in size. The result was a market where retail-linked ETF flows and corporate treasuries shouldered more of the net demand load as institutions stepped aside. Venture capital flows added another piece to the picture. JPMorgan points out that crypto venture funding rose modestly in dollar terms during 2025, yet deal counts fell and activity shifted toward later-stage rounds. Early-stage investment slowed, which indicates that investors preferred backing more established projects rather than taking on higher technical and regulatory risk in new protocols. The analysts argue that some capital traditionally earmarked for venture deals diverted into liquid corporate treasury strategies or listed products. That move reflects a preference for liquid exposure and shorter investment horizons after earlier cycles left many funds locked in illiquid positions during downturns. It also shows how JPMorgan sees the digital asset ecosystem maturing, with less emphasis on speculative seed rounds and more focus on scalable, revenue-generating businesses. Despite these signs of fatigue in the final months, the bank still projects that global capital inflows into digital assets this year will exceed the record 2025 level. Their reasoning rests on the view that many of the key indicators have already bottomed or are close to doing so. Weaker derivatives positioning, slower treasury purchases and cautious venture flows stand at levels that historically preceded renewed adoption phases rather than deeper contractions. As macro conditions stabilize and policy discussions progress, JPMorgan expects institutional players who pulled back in late 2025 to rebuild positions through futures, funds and structured products.
JPMorgan outlook on regulation, market structure and institutional flows
In its outlook, JPMorgan emphasizes that regulation and market structure will shape the next wave of crypto adoption more than any single price move. The bank sees additional US regulatory clarity as a critical catalyst for renewed institutional participation in 2026 and beyond. In particular, it points to potential legislation such as a crypto market structure bill that could finally define how different types of tokens fit into existing securities and commodities frameworks. Clearer rules on custody, trading venue standards, and disclosure would make it easier for banks, pension funds and large asset managers to justify digital asset exposure to boards and regulators. The bank’s analysts argue that the absence of this clarity held back some institutional strategies in 2025, even as corporate treasuries and retail-linked funds moved ahead. The report also highlights how the range of available investment vehicles has expanded. Exchange-traded products, regulated futures and structured notes now coexist with on-chain strategies and direct custody solutions. JPMorgan expects this mix to evolve further, with more sophisticated instruments that allow hedging, basis trades and relative value strategies between tokens, indices and traditional assets. Institutions can then treat digital assets not only as directional bets, but also as components in cross-asset portfolios, liquidity management frameworks and risk-transfer trades. As that happens, capital flows may become more stable and less tied to narrow retail cycles, although they will still respond to macro shocks and regulatory news. Within this landscape, the bank expects the composition of flows to change. Retail-linked ETF demand and corporate treasury buying dominated 2025, but JPMorgan forecasts that institutional flows could lead the next phase, especially once legislation and guidance reduce uncertainty around compliance. Some of the capital that moved out of CME futures and other derivatives venues in 2025 may return, this time with a focus on more balanced risk allocation and longer holding periods. The bank’s analysts describe current flow and positioning indicators as bottoming, which in their framework often precedes a gradual rebuilding of exposure rather than a rapid, speculative spike. That pattern would fit with a market moving toward a more mature, multi-channel structure. Venture capital could also adjust. If regulatory clarity improves and tokenization, infrastructure and compliance-focused projects gain traction, early-stage deals may attract more attention again. JPMorgan sees room for capital that recently favored liquid strategies to rotate back into longer-duration innovation bets, especially if investors gain confidence that exits will not face sudden legal or market barriers. The interplay between venture funding, corporate treasuries and listed products will likely define which sectors grow fastest and which narratives capture institutional interest.
How JPMorgan’s digital asset stance shapes broader market sentiment
As one of the largest global banks, JPMorgan carries influence beyond the direct numbers in its report. When its analysts project that digital asset inflows will surpass a record $130 billion year and that institutions will drive the next stage, many asset managers and corporate finance teams take notice. Their clients read these assessments alongside internal research when deciding whether to approve new mandates or treasury policies. A more constructive tone from a major bank can reduce perceived career risk for decision-makers who advocate for limited but meaningful crypto exposure. It also signals that digital assets have moved from the fringe of research coverage to a regular part of macro and cross-asset strategy work. The bank’s method of aggregating data also feeds into industry benchmarks. By combining crypto fund flows, CME futures positioning, venture fundraising and corporate treasury purchases, JPMorgan offers a framework that other analysts can adapt. This multi-source view counters narratives that focus only on ETFs or only on on-chain activity. It shows that capital reaches the market through overlapping channels, each sensitive to different drivers. For example, corporate treasuries respond to balance sheet strategy and board-level risk views, while hedge funds adjust to volatility regimes and funding costs, and retail-linked ETFs react to fees, marketing and platform access. Understanding how these pieces fit together helps market participants interpret whether a surge in one area marks a sustainable shift or a short-lived spike. At the same time, the report underlines that digital assets still tie closely to macro conditions. Rising rates, shifting growth expectations and changes in liquidity all influence how much risk investors tolerate across equities, credit and alternative assets. JPMorgan places crypto within that broader context rather than treating it as a separate world. That framing encourages institutions to think about bitcoin, ether and related assets in relation to equities, gold, high-yield credit and emerging markets, which could lead to more systematic allocation frameworks. As portfolios treat digital assets as one component among many, flows may become smoother, and extreme boom-bust cycles might moderate over time, even if volatility remains higher than in most traditional markets.
Conclusion
JPMorgan’s latest digital asset report portrays a market that set a record with about $130 billion in global inflows during 2025, even as momentum faded in the final quarter. More than half of that capital came from corporate treasuries, with around $68 billion in purchases, including roughly $23 billion from MicroStrategy and about $45 billion from other firms that had previously added only $8 billion a year earlier. At the same time, institutional activity in CME bitcoin and ether futures weakened, and venture capital shifted toward later-stage deals, signaling caution after a long run of gains. Looking ahead, the bank expects total inflows this year to exceed the 2025 record and sees the composition of demand changing, with institutions reasserting their role as regulatory clarity improves and market structure continues to develop. In that view, the next phase of crypto adoption will hinge less on sharp retail surges and more on how large investors, guided in part by research from banks like JPMorgan, integrate digital assets into broader portfolios and treasury strategies.
Disclaimer
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