- Brazil’s B3 exchange will launch regulated bitcoin-linked event contracts for professional investors, with cash settlement and fixed payouts.
- The exchange is also developing a tokenization platform and a stablecoin, aiming to expand its role in Brazil’s digital asset market.
Brazil’s main stock exchange, the B3 exchange, is moving deeper into crypto-linked products with a new set of derivatives that includes contracts tied to bitcoin prices. The initiative comes alongside its work on a tokenization platform and a stablecoin, positioning the venue more firmly within the digital asset ecosystem.
B3 exchange introduces bitcoin-linked event contracts
On April 27, the B3 exchange will roll out six “Event Contracts” that let investors speculate on the likelihood of future outcomes, including the price of bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, and the Ibovespa index. These instruments mirror the structure of prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, where contract prices represent the market’s view of the probability of an event occurring.
Each contract on B3 can trade up to 100 reals ($19). The payoffs are fixed, and the risk exposure is known in advance, similar to crypto-focused prediction products offered on established platforms abroad. The six contracts cover mini futures and spot references for the Ibovespa, the dollar, and bitcoin, but traders never receive the underlying assets. All positions are settled in cash, which keeps the products firmly in the derivatives space rather than direct crypto ownership.
The new contracts are regulated by Brazil’s securities authority, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), and are restricted to professional market participants. Only investors holding more than 10 million reals ($1.9 million) in assets or those with CVM certification will be able to trade them at launch, reflecting a cautious approach to rolling out federally supervised prediction-style markets.
Regulated prediction markets and crypto exposure in Brazil
The B3 exchange’s Event Contracts represent the first time a federally regulated prediction market has operated in Brazil, placing bitcoin-linked speculation under a clear supervisory framework. While domestic platforms like Prévias and Palpitada have been active, they operate in a regulatory gray area. By contrast, B3’s products sit squarely under CVM oversight, with defined eligibility rules and cash-settled structures.
B3 has already offered derivatives linked to central bank decisions in several countries and has been monitoring the rapid expansion of prediction platforms overseas. Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the global sector, together handling most of the nearly $160 billion in notional volume tracked on a Dune dashboard, with more than 3 million unique users participating worldwide. Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, has expanded its backing of Polymarket, bringing its total commitment close to $2 billion.
Brazil is also seeing cross-border prediction market activity. U.S.-based Kalshi has partnered with XP International, the country’s largest brokerage, to list event contracts tied to Brazilian economic developments. B3’s entry, with a bitcoin component and formal approval from the securities regulator, adds an onshore alternative for institutions seeking exposure to crypto-related event markets without leaving the domestic legal perimeter.
Even with this development, the broader regulatory structure for prediction markets remains unsettled in Brazil. Legal specialists note that it is still unclear whether long-term oversight should sit primarily with the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance. For now, the Event Contracts will operate under securities regulation, giving the B3 exchange a framework to offer bitcoin-linked probabilities while authorities continue to debate jurisdictional boundaries.
B3 exchange plans for tokenization and a stablecoin
The move into regulated prediction-style derivatives coincides with a wider digital asset strategy at the B3 exchange. Late last year, B3 disclosed that it is building its own tokenization platform and a stablecoin, both slated for launch this year. While details have not yet been finalized publicly, the initiative indicates that the exchange aims to support on-chain representations of assets and provide a fiat-referenced digital token within its ecosystem.
Combining a tokenization platform, a stablecoin, and bitcoin-linked event contracts suggests B3 is preparing for a market where traditional securities infrastructure and crypto-native instruments coexist. The Event Contracts provide a regulated way for large investors to express views on bitcoin’s price path, while the future tokenization and stablecoin projects could create new rails for settlement and asset issuance aligned with digital markets.
B3’s vice president of Products and Clients, Luiz Masagão, framed the launch of these contracts as part of a broader modernization of Brazil’s derivatives environment. From a crypto market perspective, the exchange is leveraging its existing risk, clearing, and regulatory relationships to offer exposure to digital assets in a structure familiar to institutional participants, rather than pushing them toward offshore or unregulated venues.
Conclusion
With its new Event Contracts, the B3 exchange is bringing bitcoin-linked prediction-style derivatives under federal oversight for the first time in Brazil, targeting professional investors through cash-settled, fixed-payout structures. The initiative arrives as B3 develops a tokenization platform and a stablecoin, underscoring its intent to integrate digital assets into its core infrastructure while regulators work to clarify the long-term supervisory model for prediction markets.
Disclaimer
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