Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro published a note on Thursday March 26 saying the crypto market decline has “approximately reached the historical peak-to-trough average” for this cycle. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. By late March 2026 it was trading between $69,000 and $71,000, roughly 45 percent below that peak. Yaro’s argument, reported by CNBC, is that the drawdown is statistically consistent with where previous crypto cycles bottomed, that liquidity signals are stabilising, and that forced selling has reduced. He identified three stocks with “attractive setups” for the recovery he expects to follow.
Goldman Sachs is not a neutral observer. The firm holds approximately $2.36 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF exposure as of its 2026 13F filings. CEO David Solomon confirmed personal Bitcoin ownership in February 2026, reversing earlier statements that he saw no real use case for the asset. Goldman upgraded Coinbase to Buy in January 2026. The note on Thursday is the latest step in a pivot that has been underway inside the firm for the better part of a year.
| 45% Bitcoin Drawdown from Oct 2025 ATH | $2.36B Goldman BTC and ETH ETF Exposure | 46% Crypto Equity Decline Since Oct 2025 |
Goldman Sachs Crypto Stock Picks: Current Price vs Price Target
All three rated Buy. Source: Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro note, reported by CNBC, March 26, 2026. Prices as of March 26, 2026.
| Stock | Current vs Target | Current | GS Target | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN Coinbase | current $177 target $235 | $177 | $235 | +33% |
| FIGR Figure Tech | current $32.26 target $42 (raised from $39) | $32.26 | $42 | +30% |
| HOOD Robinhood | current price target trimmed, upside remains | Mkt | Buy | Upside |
Goldman lowered Coinbase PT from $270 to $235 and trimmed Robinhood PT. Both still reflect upside from March 26 levels. Figure Technologies PT raised from $39 to $42. Not financial advice. Consult a qualified adviser before investing.
The Three Stocks Goldman Is Watching
Yaro’s note singled out three names: Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure Technologies. All three are rated Buy. The reasoning differs for each.
Coinbase has an attractive growth opportunity in crypto derivatives trading, subscription and services revenue including stablecoins and prime brokerage, and a new product slate covering prediction markets, equities trading, banking, and wealth management. Goldman lowered its Coinbase price target from $270 to $235, but at the stock’s current price of approximately $177 the revised target still implies roughly 30 percent upside. Full-year 2025 trading volume at Coinbase hit $5.2 trillion, up 156 percent year over year. The Q4 2025 earnings miss, driven by a $667 million GAAP net loss on $1.78 billion in revenue, weighed on the stock, but annual subscription revenue climbed 23 percent to a record level.
Robinhood is expanding its suite for advanced traders while extending into banking and broader financial services. Goldman trimmed its Robinhood price target as well, but both revised targets remain above current trading levels. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev’s comment that tokenized stocks are a “freight train”, made in the context of the Nasdaq SEC approval announced the same week, signals that Robinhood is positioning for the institutional-to-retail tokenization pipeline as a distribution channel.
Figure Technologies, trading under ticker FIGR, is the least well-known of the three names Goldman flagged. It runs a blockchain-based home equity line of credit business and saw its price target raised to $42 from $39, implying approximately 35 percent upside from current levels. The stock was trading 3 percent higher at $32.26 at the time the note was published. Figure is specifically described by Goldman as less directly exposed to crypto prices than exchanges like Coinbase, making it an interesting play on blockchain infrastructure adoption rather than pure crypto market sentiment.
The Caveat Yaro Buried in the Note
Goldman’s note is not an all-clear signal. Yaro explicitly said prices may have troughed but that trading volumes could fall somewhat further, potentially reducing 2026 revenue for crypto-linked companies by 2 percent and profits by 4 percent. He noted that trough crypto volumes typically last a median of three months before rebounding meaningfully. If that pattern holds from the current low point, meaningful volume recovery would not arrive until late Q2 or early Q3 2026.
The independent counterpoint comes from crypto research firm Ecoinometrics, which noted that for every 10 percent drop from peak, Bitcoin historically takes approximately 80 days to recover. At the current drawdown level, that model implies roughly 300 days, or approximately 10 months, for a full recovery. That is a materially different timeline from what Goldman’s three-month volume trough estimate implies and investors should be aware the two frameworks are not reconciled.
Goldman is also not the only institutional desk calling a bottom. Bernstein recently declared Bitcoin’s cyclical low confirmed and reiterated a $150,000 price target for 2026. Other institutional desks have pointed to on-chain capitulation signals and technical support in the $60,000 to $65,000 range as signs that selling pressure is easing. The broader correction has been driven by the Federal Reserve maintaining its higher-for-longer posture, U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions that have periodically spiked oil prices and risk-off sentiment, and softer ETF inflows in the earlier months of 2026.
What a Goldman Bottom Call Actually Means
Goldman Sachs publishing a note saying crypto may have bottomed carries a specific weight that a similar note from a crypto-native research firm does not. Goldman manages $3.6 trillion in assets. Its analysts are read by the pension funds, endowments, and wealth managers that determine institutional flows. When Goldman signals an entry point, it does not just observe market conditions. It influences the capital allocation decisions that shape those conditions.
The note arrives alongside the most significant institutional infrastructure buildout crypto has seen. The same week Goldman published its bottom call, Nasdaq received SEC approval to tokenize equities, Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF approached imminent NYSE listing, and BlackRock was reporting positive inflows into its staked Ethereum ETF even as the broader ETH ETF market saw outflows. The structural demand that Goldman is noting is not speculative. It is showing up in actual product flows and regulatory approvals in real time.
For context on the broader institutional picture this week, see our coverage of the Nasdaq tokenized stocks SEC approval and the Morgan Stanley MSBT filing. For the regulatory backdrop, see the SEC token taxonomy from March 17.
Disclaimer: This article summarises Goldman Sachs analyst views as reported by CNBC and other financial media. CryptoNewsBytes is not a financial adviser. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice. Do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
FAQs: Goldman Sachs and the Crypto Bottom Call
Related Coverage on CryptoNewsBytes
The structural Wall Street buildout that Goldman’s bottom call is tracking, blockchain infrastructure moving into the $126 trillion equity market.
The other major Wall Street story from the same week, and the institutional demand Goldman is citing.
Our earlier analysis of the Fear and Greed Index at extreme fear, the on-chain context behind Goldman’s technical stabilisation call.
The institutional accumulation trend that Goldman, Bernstein, and other desks are all tracking as the structural floor for this cycle.
Strategy’s take on why Bitcoin at $69-71K is an accumulation opportunity, not a warning sign, the institutional thesis from the other side of Goldman’s note.
Primary sources: CNBC, March 26, 2026 | Goldman Sachs analyst note, James Yaro, March 26, 2026 | AMBCrypto | TheStreet | 247WallSt. Published March 31, 2026.
