- Bitcoin trades near 112000 after a weeklong slide
- ethereum falls 2 percent to around 4240 on Binance
- markets await Powell remarks at Jackson Hole for rate clues
Traders are lining up for Friday’s remarks from Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole, Wyo., and the mood is cautious. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has eased by about 1%, extending a weeklong slide of almost 5% to roughly $112,000 based on Binance pricing. Ethereum is softer as well, lower by about 2% on the day to near $4,240. The move mirrors a wider risk-off tone: the total crypto market value is down about 1% day over day to $3.9 trillion, and the S&P 500 is off around 0.3% since Thursday’s open. The setup is simple enough: a high-profile speech, a market leaning for guidance, and a rate path that still feels unsettled.
Bitcoin and Jackson Hole: what traders are pricing
Jackson Hole has been a policy touchpoint since 1982, and the chair’s comments often nudge expectations for the next few months. This time, positioning reflects unease rather than certainty. As James Butterfill of CoinShares put it, investors are doubtful that a pivot signal will arrive on stage, and that read has weighed on risk assets. For Bitcoin, the pullback looks less like panic and more like a repricing of odds ahead of a binary event. If Powell leans cautious on inflation progress, term premia and front-end yields can stay firm a bit longer, and that typically tightens the near-term flow into higher-beta corners of the market.
There’s also a mechanical element at play. When policy feels stuck in wait-and-see mode, short-dated U.S. Treasury bills remain a simple parking spot. A clear path to lower rates, by contrast, tends to loosen that parking brake and redirect cash into assets with higher potential upside. Bitcoin sits squarely in that cross-current, which is why a few basis points of perceived policy drift can translate into a percent here or there on the screen.
Macro signals behind the week’s pullback
The recent whipsaw in data explains the market’s mixed tone. In July, headline inflation rose 2.7% year over year, softer than many feared. For a moment, traders were nearly convinced that September would bring the first cut, and crypto rallied; the leading coin even set another all-time high. Two days later, the producer price index registered a 0.9% month-over-month jump, the largest since June 2022. That one print didn’t break the broader disinflation story, but it did add friction. As rate-cut odds faded, the bid in risk assets cooled, and prices drifted lower through the week.
Context helps here. Macro cycles turn on sequences, not single data points. A benign CPI followed by a hot PPI sends a mixed message, and markets tend to shade toward caution until the next confirmation. In that gap, traders trim leverage, algos pull back from the top of the book, and ranges compress. For Bitcoin, which had been running strong into the summer, a 1% daily dip and an almost 5% weekly slide is consistent with that kind of pause rather than a trend change by itself.
Policy shifts, stablecoins, and the path ahead for Bitcoin
Not everyone sees a break in the uptrend. Ira Auerbach, who now works with a venture arm linked to a major blockchain developer and previously led digital assets at Nasdaq Inc., framed the pullback as a small correction. That view hangs on two pillars. First, policy in the United States has not rolled back recent steps seen as friendly to digital assets, including an executive order from President Donald Trump that allows crypto and certain private assets in 401(k) plans. Second, stablecoin usage keeps expanding, drawing more day-to-day activity onto public rails backed by familiar units like the U.S. dollar.
If those two supports hold, temporary softness can be absorbed as macro visibility improves. A September cut would likely shift cash from T-bills toward assets with higher expected returns, and even a later move keeps the runway intact as long as inflation cools in trend. That’s the quieter story underneath the headline moves: participation widening via stablecoins, regulatory contours that are clearer than a year ago, and a market that still responds—sometimes sharply—to each fresh macro cue.
Conclusion
The near term turns on Powell’s tone and the next few data prints. A 2.7% July CPI followed by a 0.9% July PPI left traders short on conviction, and prices adjusted to match. With total crypto value around $3.9 trillion, equities slightly softer, and Bitcoin near $112,000 after a modest daily and weekly dip, the setup is balanced rather than broken. If policy guidance leans toward easing in September, the case for renewed risk appetite strengthens; if not, patience and positioning will carry the day until the next signal arrives.
Disclaimer
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