Many people hoped to turn their crypto investments into life-changing money, but the bear market shattered their dreams. They had to put their plans for supercars and first-class travel on hold and face reality. Investors blindly bought Bitcoin (BTC) above the $60,000 level. They expected the king of crypto to hit six-digit figures in no time. But BTC took a nosedive after reaching a cycle peak of more than $69,000.
Those who bought high lost hope and sold in panic, when the bear market reared its head. However, pseudonymous quant analyst Plan B claims that this was all part of the plan. He even predicts that a new bull market cycle is already starting.
How Did Plan B Know That We Are Entering the Bitcoin Bull Phase?
The popular Bitcoin analyst presented a chart with a simple indicator. The 200-week moving average (200 WMA) is popular among traders. The moving average represents the average price of an asset over a given period, which in this case is 200 weeks. The chart also shows the BTC price on the Y-axis and the date on the X-axis.
There is a “third dimension” that indicates how many months are left until the next BTC halving. The months are represented by dots that change color depending on the proximity of the halving. Each halving happens every four years. The reward for mining new blocks on Bitcoin’s network is reduced by 50%, affecting the supply and price of the number one digital asset.
Plan B’s chart shows that the dots are green when bear markets happen. It usually happens 20 months before the next halving. When the dots turn to blue, they historically signal that the bull market is coming. And the dots are now light blue.
What will Bitcoin’s Price be by the Next Halving?
It is also interesting to see that each halving always happens above the 200 WMA. Another important piece of data is that the 200 WMA is on an upward trajectory. This means BTC will always have a higher price compared to the previous halving.
The next halving is expected to happen around April 2024. The 200 WMA increases by approximately $500 a month, according to Plan B. His calculation indicates that the 200 WMA will be around $32,000 at the halving. BTC would usually be approximately 50% above the 200 WMA price. So the estimate would be between $40,000 and $50,000.
How Sure is the Analysis?
Plan B’s technical analysis makes sense. The 200-week moving average is a popular indicator. It can act as a good resistance or support level. But we should also consider other factors that can affect the chart analysis. We need to ask questions to gain clarity. What is the overall regulatory environment like? Are countries adopting crypto or resisting it? We should also follow the money. Are major institutions investing in Bitcoin and other altcoins?
Investors will have a better chance of succeeding if they see the big picture. An informed investor does not panic when others are losing their heads.
Plan B’s video:
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. You should do your own research and consult a professional before making any investment decisions. We are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from your use of the information in this article.
