- Bernstein says stablecoins already see growing use in cross-border payments, remittances and neobanking, while AI-driven payments remain early
- Coinbase and Circle’s USDC is highlighted as the main proxy for stablecoin growth and a likely leader for future machine-to-machine payments
Stablecoins are emerging as a possible backbone for AI-driven payments, even though current usage remains modest, according to a new report from brokerage firm Bernstein. The research note, shared with Cointelegraph on Monday, argues that on-chain dollar tokens are already seeing growing demand from traditional payment use cases, while autonomous transactions between software agents could represent additional upside rather than the main growth driver.
AI agents and early experiments in stablecoin machine payments
Bernstein’s analysis highlights how stablecoins can enable machine-to-machine payments by supporting low-value transactions and programmable settlement logic between AI agents. By removing the need for human approval, these tokens could underpin automated commerce where software services pay each other directly over the internet.
The report points to recent experiments as early tests of this concept. Stripe-backed Tempo has launched a machine payments protocol using stablecoins, but activity remains small. In its first week, the protocol processed around $5,000 in stablecoin volume. Coinbase’s x402 standard, which allows AI agents to send payments autonomously, handled no more than $25 million over the last 30 days. Bernstein’s own chart put x402 volume at approximately $24 million for that period, underlining how early the market still is.
Despite limited traction, large payment firms are pushing ahead with tools aimed at autonomous transfers. Visa’s crypto unit introduced an offering on Thursday that lets AI agents execute same-day payments, while Tempo rolled out its blockchain and payments stack. Bernstein frames these efforts as part of a longer-term trend rather than a near-term driver of volumes.
Core growth drivers for stablecoins beyond AI
While AI payments attract attention, Bernstein stresses that they are not essential to the asset class’s current adoption curve. The note argues that existing use cases already support strong demand for stablecoins, particularly in areas where traditional banking is slow or expensive.
According to the report, key growth segments include cross-border business transactions, retail remittances, payment cards linked to crypto balances, and neobanking products that use stablecoins as a settlement layer. These activities are described as the real engine behind rising payment volume, with autonomous machine payments categorized as an “upside case” on top of this base.
Bernstein estimates that total stablecoin payment volume increased from $213 billion in 2024 to $375 billion in 2025. Consumer-to-consumer transfers led this expansion, while business-to-consumer, business-to-business, and consumer-to-business flows also grew. The figures underline how on-chain dollar payments are being used for everyday transfers as well as corporate settlement.
Stablecoins, USDC and the role of Coinbase and Circle
The report singles out Coinbase and Circle as the strongest listed exposure to the stablecoin segment. Bernstein describes the two firms as the best “proxies” for upside in the space, primarily due to their shared role in issuing and promoting USD Coin (USDC). The partnership gives both companies a direct link to payment activity and balances tied to the token.
Bernstein also expects USDC to capture a leading position in any future machine-payment segment. The note argues that among the likely candidates for AI-driven transfers, USDC stands out because it combines high liquidity with a comparatively stronger regulatory profile. That, in Bernstein’s view, positions the coin to become the default choice for automated agent payments, should this niche expand.
Usage data cited in the report point to significant existing traction. In 2026 so far, USDC has recorded $2.4 trillion in adjusted transaction volume. Tether’s USDt is also mentioned as a comparator, though detailed figures are not provided in the excerpt. Together, these metrics reinforce Bernstein’s thesis that stablecoins are already handling substantial settlement activity, independent of AI experiments.
Conclusion
Bernstein’s research frames AI-driven machine payments as a long-term opportunity layered on top of an already expanding stablecoin market. Early pilots from Stripe-backed Tempo, Coinbase’s x402 and Visa’s crypto unit show how autonomous agents could eventually route payments using on-chain dollars, though current volumes are still small. For now, growth is anchored in more conventional applications such as cross-border transfers, remittances and card-linked products. Within that landscape, Coinbase and Circle’s USDC remains central, both as a proxy for investor exposure and as a likely frontrunner if AI-native payment flows begin to scale.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The article does not offer sufficient information to make investment decisions, nor does it constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The content is opinion of the author and does not reflect any view or suggestion or any kind of advise from cryptonewsbytes.com. The author declares he does not hold any of the above mentioned tokens or received any incentive from any company.
Featured image created by AI
