- Bipartisan Senate bill would block sports betting and casino-style contracts on CFTC-regulated prediction markets
- Recent CFTC actions and court rulings in Ohio and Nevada highlight uncertainty over federal jurisdiction versus state gambling laws
A new bipartisan Senate bill is expected to target sports betting and “casino-style” products offered through prediction markets overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), according to a report published Monday by the Wall Street Journal. The measure, to be introduced by US Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis, would prohibit such contracts on federally regulated prediction platforms, intensifying an already active regulatory debate over the boundaries between gambling and financial markets.
Bipartisan Senate bill targets prediction market contracts
The anticipated legislation would bar sports wagering and casino-like contracts from prediction markets that fall under the CFTC’s jurisdiction. Senator John Curtis, a co-sponsor, linked the initiative to concerns about youth exposure to gambling in his home state. He told the Wall Street Journal that many young people in Utah are encountering addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that, in his view, should be addressed through state-level oversight rather than by federal financial regulators.
This Senate bill would arrive amid a broader Washington effort to restrict the types of events that can be traded on prediction markets. Earlier this month, on March 10, Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which seeks to prevent CFTC-regulated platforms from listing contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination, and the death of individuals. Together, these efforts reflect mounting concern in Congress about how far prediction markets should be allowed to expand into sensitive or traditionally regulated areas such as gambling and violent conflict.
The Wall Street Journal report indicates that this latest proposal would specifically focus on the sports and casino-style segments of the market, which have become central to trading activity on major platforms. Cointelegraph has requested comment and a copy of the draft text from the senators’ offices.
Sports betting’s central role in prediction market volume
Sports contracts currently generate a substantial portion of the trading volume on CFTC-regulated prediction platforms. Data from Dune Analytics for the previous week show that sports-related markets represented 47.7% of notional volume on Polymarket and 78.8% on Kalshi. In dollar terms, sports betting was tied to $1.2 billion in weekly notional trading on Polymarket and $2.6 billion on Kalshi.
These figures highlight how much of the activity on such platforms now resembles traditional sports wagering. The focus of the Senate bill on sports and casino-style products therefore cuts to the core of the business for some providers. The increased attention also follows renewed insider trading concerns connected to contracts tied to the US-Israeli war with Iran, which have placed additional scrutiny on the kinds of geopolitical and conflict-related markets that some platforms have listed.
State–federal tension over CFTC authority
Regulatory pressure on prediction markets has not been limited to Congress. On March 12, the CFTC issued a staff advisory categorizing event contracts on these platforms as a distinct “financial asset class.” The agency also published an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to gather public input on how the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) should apply to prediction markets. Both Polymarket and Kalshi currently operate as Designated Contract Markets under CFTC oversight.
Despite this, recent court decisions suggest that the CFTC’s claim to “exclusive jurisdiction” may be contested at the state level. In a March 9 ruling, an Ohio judge found that Kalshi had not demonstrated that the CEA would necessarily override Ohio’s sports gambling laws or that its sports betting contracts clearly fell within the CFTC’s exclusive domain. The decision challenged the notion that federal commodities regulation automatically preempts state gambling frameworks for these products.
A separate case in Nevada has added to the uncertainty. On Friday, a Nevada judge temporarily barred Kalshi from offering sports, election, and entertainment event contracts within the state for 14 days. The court concluded that state regulators were reasonably likely to show that these markets violated Nevada gambling statutes. These rulings underscore a growing conflict between federal financial regulation and state-level gambling enforcement, with prediction markets sitting at the intersection.
Conclusion
The expected bipartisan Senate bill from Adam Schiff and John Curtis would further sharpen federal attention on prediction markets by moving to exclude sports betting and casino-style contracts from CFTC-regulated platforms. Coming on the heels of the DEATH BETS Act, the initiative reflects a broader shift in Washington toward narrowing the scope of tradable events, particularly where they overlap with gambling or sensitive real-world harms. At the same time, recent court decisions in Ohio and Nevada reveal ongoing disputes over whether federal commodities rules can displace state gambling laws. How these legal and legislative efforts converge will shape the future structure and permissible offerings of prediction markets in the United States.
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